With the year coming to a close, analysts have turned their eyes towards 2017 in anticipation of what is to come. The year is already looking pretty big, Microsoft will be releasing Project Scorpio, the ultra-powered Xbox One, at a "console price" and Nintendo will be releasing their brand new console, the Switch.
Those aren't the only happenings of 2017, but they certainly are the biggest. According to Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter we will be seeing a lot more – like a new Modern Warfare game from Sledgehammer, the Nintendo Switch being sold out for the entire summer, Elder Scrolls 6 releasing and more.
Whether or not you trust Pachter's predictions, they are interesting to look at.
In the past, Pachter has said some pretty shocking things; he said something awful about Satoru Iwata after he passed away (then apologized for it) and suggested that this console cycle, the Xbox One and PS4, would be the last "real" console we see before consoles become streaming devices.
Pachter's 2017 predictions:
- PS4 price goes to $199. I think Sony is intent upon keeping Microsoft in distant second, and expect a price cut for standard PS4 (slim) to $199 before year-end 2017.
- No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption. Rockstar hasn't released a "new" game since 2013, and Red Dead will consume all of its efforts in 2017.
- Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold.
- Super Mario Run is a huge hit out of the gate, and interest peters out by June. Notwithstanding the brand's popularity, Nintendo is making a strategic error with its "free-to-start" business model, and I expect sales to drop off relatively quickly.
- Pokemon Go drops out of the top 10 in every country with a population greater than 20 million. The game was fun, but there's only so many Pokemon to capture.
- The Switch is sold out through September. The console looks fun, the price appears to be right, and I expect demand to be high. If there is a lot of third-party support (games, not merely labels), I think demand remains high.
- The Xbox Scorpio is priced at $399. This might not be low enough, particularly if PS4 Pro drops before holiday 2017, but Microsoft has to price competitively or fall farther behind.
- The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.
As far as how accurate Pachter is, we won't know until the end of 2017. However, his 2016 predictions were surprisingly on point. Back in the beginning of 2015, Pachter predicted that Sony would basically abandon the PS Vita (we really haven't seen it this year), Miitomo would fail (it did), the NX wouldn't release in 2016 (it's the Switch now and it's releasing in 2017), the Assassin's Creed movie would be a "modest" success (the movie is getting awful reviews, but box office numbers will decide how 'modest' it is), that Nintendo's second mobile game would be Super Mario based and a success (Super Mario Run). He was off on a few other things, but mostly correct.
On his points:
Unfortunately, his point on Elder Scrolls might be the hardest one not to hope for. Bethesda has confirmed that they are not yet working on the game – but they could be lying… Who knows? The Switch will likely sell out for months – Nintendo has a history of short baking. Microsoft has already confirmed Scorpio will see average console price, Pokemon GO is already dropping out, Super Mario Run sold well on iOS but hasn't broken into Android charts – so it will likely die out, Rockstar will probably only release Red Dead 2 and Sony probably won't be dropping the PS4's price – they don't have the best history of price drops.
Oh, and as for Call of Duty going back to Modern Warfare… Who knows, but with how well the Modern Warfare Remaster did they would be silly not to.
[Games Industry via NeoGaf]
