E3 10 Anticipation: Nintendo 3DS Forecast

By Louis Bedigian
GameZone.com

Let’s face it: even if Nintendo delayed the 3DS (currently due no later than March 2011) till Spring 2011, it would still beat the competition – PSP’s successor and maybe something from Apple? – to store shelves.

But being first isn’t what made the original DS a success. In fact, when it first came out, it wasn’t that hard to find. But by the end of its second Christmas in 2005, everyone had to have one. The reason: because there were tons of great games available and many more were on the way.

This is the same strategy I expect Nintendo to use to launch the 3DS. It may not have any mammoth launch titles; Zelda or Mario could arrive quickly, but don’t get your hopes up. However, those sequels – along with many others we’ll be dying for – will likely arrive within the first 12 to 18 months of the system’s release. In fact, I’d expect at least one major first-party game to be released every quarter.

Is that enough? Not even close. But you can bet that, just as Nintendo launched new hit franchises with the original DS (Nintendogs being one of the biggest), their talented developers will have a few breakthroughs on the 3DS as well.

E3 Predictions: 3DS Announcements

New Fun: I would be absolutely stunned if Nintendo didn’t unveil the 3DS with at least one brand-new franchise, so unless the long-awaited Nintendogs sequel is going to be the system’s big hype title (and thus scares off all other announcements), expect to see something entirely new.

A Plumber’s Return?: When Nintendo first announced the DS, it showed off an early demo of NEW Super Mario Bros. Nintendo hasn’t released a true handheld Mario sequel since 2006, so it’s very possible the company will announce – and hopefully show – a new one for the 3DS.

The Triforce Isn’t Strong With This One: Don’t count on a new handheld Zelda just yet; with Link returning to Wii (presumably this year), Nintendo isn’t going to announce any conflicting games, even if they are for another platform.

Taking Flight: Call me crazy, but it seems that Star Fox or Pilot Wings – or some new aerial franchise – would work really well on a system that lifts images off the screen. Don’t you think? Let’s not get our hopes up too high, but a 3D Star Fox would be awesome.

Health and Fitness: Just as Nintendogs was huge for the DS, Wii Fit was huge for Wii. That makes me wonder – is Nintendo about to announce a game that combines canines and exercising? All jokes aside, Nintendo has already dabbled in fitness on the original DS. Expect them to go even further with the 3DS.

Mini-Games and Mini Applications: The DSi has dabbled in smaller and cheaper (download-only) games, and I’m willing to bet Nintendo will push them even harder on the 3DS.

3G Connection?: This one is hard to say. Nintendo is interested in the online space, if only to sell us more games or content. (Can you imagine the DLC third-parties would develop?) But there aren’t many 3G options available. If Nintendo wants to let us game online, a freebie service is nearly out of the question. At the same time, I doubt Nintendo will launch a subscription service just yet. If, however, its plans are limited to small downloads (similar to the original DS), then a free 3G offering is very possible.

Price Point: Though Nintendo isn’t likely announce the price – or a specific release date outside of a “fall” or “winter” confirmation – at E3, I’m convinced the 3DS will retail for no more than $199.99, making it the most expensive handheld Nintendo has ever released. I have doubts that it will launch with a game as the Wii did in ‘06, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Nintendo included a few pre-loaded mini-games or applications.

Tennis: Considering what happened the last time Nintendo used a tennis game to hype a 3D system (Virtual Boy), it’s unlikely that there will be any first-party tennis games announced for the 3DS.

Third Party Love: Despite the somewhat weak third-party sales on the original DS (Nintendo’s own games ruled the system), there’s no doubt that other developers will be eager to release games on the 3DS. That’s good new because they will help fill in the blanks – and if the original DS is any indication, help bring a ton of unexpected innovation.

How to Predict the 3DS’ Release Date: Nintendo may love to surprise us, but its hype and release strategy isn’t that hard to predict. If the 3DS is fully playable at the show – “fully” meaning that it’s on the show floor – then you can be pretty sure that it will be released this Christmas. This is especially true if the hands-on display is accompanied by several different games from a wide variety of developers, and if multiple games are announced at Nintendo’s E3 press conference.

If, however, Nintendo only announces a couple games during the conference and is vague about third-party titles, or if Nintendo chooses to keep the 3DS behind closed doors, or – worst of all – if the 3DS isn’t playable anywhere at E3, then there’s a good chance the system won’t be released until 2011, regardless of what Nintendo says at the show.

Hopefully the first scenario is the one Nintendo is planning for, and we’ll all by staring at our own miraculous, three-dimensional handhelds by Thanksgiving.