Wii Predicted to Be Holiday Winner; Supply to Balance Out By April

Wedbush Morgan analyst and mouthpiece Michael Pachter has determined that, in this time of year following Thanksgiving, that there should be a sharp increase in console sales, perhaps peaking around the 25th of December, but continuing through the end of the year with the Wii leading the charge.

Leveraging reports from the Big 3, Pachter says that console sales in the US have been “selling extremely well” in the holiday season so far, thanks to the reduced PS3 price tag and introduction of a 40GB unit, the 360’s holiday bundles, and an increased supply of Wii units. “We estimate 150,000 – 200,000 in unit sales for the week [of Thanksgiving],” said Pachter.

Though hardware sales had been comparably more modest versus those in 2002, when consoles typically rang up at $200 or less, Pachter states that the recent price cuts and killer apps have “triggered a spike in hardware sales over the last few months that we believe will continue over the remainder of the year.”

He continued, “These figures imply that Microsoft will sell 1.5 million Xbox 360s in December in the U.S., that Nintendo will sell 1.7 million Wiis, and that Sony will sell around 800,000 PS3s. This is about double the number of consoles sold last December, and suggests that the holiday will be a good one for the U.S. publishers.”

Pachter also mentioned that sales of the PS2 would help drive overall growth into next year, and that U.S. console software sales are up 26 percent year-to-date, with a growth in software (including PC) up by 21 percent.

He closed with the following: “Nintendo remains the least promotional of the three hardware manufacturers due to the strength of its Wii, with demand expected to outstrip supply well into next year. We expect supply and demand to be in balance by April, with U.S. Wii sales of around 6 – 6.5 million units per year in 2007 and 2008.”